"Controllable Turmoil" in the Middle East: Restructuring Regional Order and Long-term Game

From Fragmentation to "Managed Turmoil"

The Middle East has long been regarded as a crucible of global geopolitics. But the current changes are not simply a superposition of crises; they are a profound structural transformation. From the artificial borders drawn after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, to the rise and fall of Arab nationalism, and then to the ascendancy of political Islam, the Middle East has been in search of a sustainable order. However, the events of October 2023 and the Gaza war have exposed the limits of the old conflict management model. The region is moving from "general instability" to "managed turmoil" — various forces no longer seek to completely resolve contradictions but learn to maintain a fragile balance through competition.

The Burden of History: Borders, Identity, and Failed State-Building

The foundation of contemporary Middle East political geography is the colonial legacy of the post-Ottoman era. The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement and the mandate system artificially demarcated borders, forcibly incorporating different ethnic groups, sects, and tribes into single state frameworks. This state-building model, lacking historical legitimacy, led to prolonged internal tensions. Arab nationalism once attempted to transcend these divisions, but the 1967 Six-Day War destroyed its credibility, leaving an ideological vacuum. Political Islam subsequently filled this void, especially the 1979 Iranian Revolution which set a precedent for theocracy, but it too failed to bring stability. Currently, sectarian identities are instrumentalized by geopolitical competition, exemplified by the Saudi-Iranian proxy conflict.

Palestine: The Inevitable Core

The Palestine issue is not only a humanitarian crisis but also a litmus test for the legitimacy of the Middle East order. Although Israel has achieved peace with Egypt and Jordan, and normalized relations with the UAE and other countries through the Abraham Accords, the Gaza war has shown that strategies to marginalize the Palestinian issue are unsustainable. The disconnect between public sentiment and national interests places governments under dual pressure. The Palestine issue has transcended the regional scope and become a focal point in the struggle for international discourse. Any future regional arrangement that ignores this fundamental contradiction will lack a solid foundation.

Iran and Israel: The Shaping of a Regional Cold War

If the Palestine issue represents historical roots, then the Iran-Israel confrontation is the current strategic axis. Iran implements forward defense through the "Axis of Resistance" (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, etc.), while Israel relies on military superiority and preemptive strikes to maintain deterrence. The two sides have formed a kind of indirect confrontation similar to the Cold War era, but lack crisis management mechanisms. This state is highly prone to escalation into direct conflict due to miscalculation. At the same time, both countries are vying for the power to define the regional order: Iran exports revolutionary and resistance narratives, while Israel emphasizes technology and alliance cooperation. China's mediation (Saudi-Iran rapprochement) and the partial withdrawal of the United States have diversified the roles of external forces.

The Changing Role of External ForcesAlthough the United States still maintains a strong military presence in the Middle East, its strategic focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific. Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, continues to exert influence through Syria. China, meanwhile, has emerged through economic investments and diplomatic mediation (such as brokering the Saudi-Iran rapprochement), but lacks security commitments. This multipolarity provides regional countries with more strategic options, yet also increases uncertainty. The diversification of Gulf states' foreign policies, Turkey's ambitions, and the fragility of traditional stabilizers like Egypt and Jordan together form the mosaic of a new order.

The Future: From Conflict Management to Structural Adjustment

The Middle East is unlikely to achieve comprehensive peace, nor will it descend into anarchy. The most probable path is "managed turbulence": all parties prevent loss of control through limited agreements, tacit understandings, and crisis communication. However, genuine stability requires resolving deeper contradictions such as the status of Palestine, the Iran nuclear issue, and internal identity crises. The international community must move beyond short-term crisis response and promote inclusive dialogue and institutional building. Otherwise, the Middle East will continue to serve as the "stress test zone" for the global order.